United States
The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised up from 0.7% m/m to…
The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November, climbing 14 points to its highest level since April. The headline index suggests that manufacturing activity is expanding in New York State – a positive…
This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.
The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial metal demand growth are way too optimistic.
US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a 25 basis point rate cut by next…
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the October survey results…
The DXY collapsed to a 2 ½ month low on Tuesday following the softer than anticipated CPI inflation release which prompted investors to bring forward their Fed rate cut expectations (see The Numbers). This marks an acceleration of a budding downtrend since…
Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI print and the bond market’s reaction.
Investors should not get their hopes up about this week’s US-China summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden will meet on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco on November 15. The two…
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…