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United States

Reasons For A Later Recession Start Date
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later.  Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second half of the year. They see the…
Daily Insights
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Recap Of Q3 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth for 2024 will move lower than currently projected - a negative for equities. This Santa Claus rally is unlikely to be the start of a new bull market.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
US Policy Is Restrictive, But Inflation Expectations Are Still High
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.7. Declines in both…
Daily Insights
A Return To Positive Earnings Growth In Q3
The Q3 earnings season is nearing its end. By Friday, 92% of S&P 500 companies had already reported and thus far the results are positive. According to FactSet, the S&P 500's 4.1% y/y blended earnings growth rate is the first earnings expansion since…
Daily Insights
Evolving Factor Landscape
Analyzing the long/short performance of the Equity Analyzer Composite Factors gives insight into both what has been driving US large cap markets and how those drivers have evolved over the course of the year. The results presented in the table above were…
Daily Insights
Election Night In America
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the results of the 2023 off-year elections are positive marginally for the equity market according to the team's “Golden Rule of the 2024 Election,” in which any event that substantially erodes the…
Daily Insights
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Signs Of Cracks In DM Labor Markets

Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant model on a daily basis for confirmation.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Biden Not A Lame Duck (Yet)

Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election, especially considering the slowing economy and the many foreign challenges facing the US.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Job Switchers Are Leading The Deceleration In Wage Growth
After surging in H2 2021/H1 2022, the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker has been on a general downtrend for over a year. The latest reading of 5.2% in October – albeit unchanged from September – is considerably below the peak of 6.7% just over a year ago.…
Daily Insights
If You Buy Just One Bond, Buy The German Bund
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s inherited Germanic anti-inflation DNA. Even…
Daily Insights

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