United States

The White House announced the October jobs and CPI reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown, but alternative indicators already point to weaker labor and inflation momentum. The labor market was stalling, though not collapsing,…

The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, ticking down to 98.2 from 98.8, reflecting softer expectations and earnings. Lower earnings were driven by both weaker sales volumes and higher costs. The share of small businesses citing poor…

Macro momentum remains neutral, with the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI showing stabilizing yet still weak growth. The headline index missed expectations and continued to signal contraction, but new orders, which usually lead the headline, improved. Regional…

Our US Equity strategists highlight Data Center Infrastructure as a long-term investment theme, with Capital Goods and Materials companies emerging as key GenAI beneficiaries. As hyperscalers accelerate global data center expansion, demand for turbines, grid…

Inflation expectations remain central to monetary policy frameworks, as they hinge on central bank credibility and shape policy responses. After years of persistent disinflation and zero lower bound constraints between the GFC and the pandemic, policymakers…

US consumer sentiment fell sharply in November, signaling weaker momentum despite resilient consumption data. The preliminary University of Michigan Index dropped more than expected to 50.3 from 53.6, near all-time lows. Both current conditions and…

The FOMC meeting in mid-December remains live. The rates market is pricing in a 72% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, 69% of respondents agreed, but another 37% thought…

Markets are overpricing the risk of the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief US and Geopolitical Strategist. Following Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing, betting markets have moved to reflect…

Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend a long Asian semiconductor stocks / short US hyperscalers trade over the next 6–12 months, with a positive return profile in both bullish and bearish AI scenarios. Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers stand to benefit…