United States
Maintain a long-duration stance and favor curve steepeners as disinflation remains well on track. US November CPI showed cooling inflation, but the report was heavily impacted by the government shutdown, with October data extrapolated in place of actual BLS…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists see rising demand for a third party in the US, but expect the two-party system to hold through the 2028 election. The macro backdrop will shape whether a left-wing populist emerges as the Democratic nominee. In the…
Our US Investment strategists recommend maintaining benchmark equity exposure, despite weakening job gains, as the AI narrative may still drive a late-cycle melt-up. While recession risks are building, they argue against underweighting equities prematurely,…
Maintain an underweight in industrial commodities as flash PMIs confirm weak global growth momentum. December flash PMIs for developed markets pointed to subdued activity. The US composite slowed to 53 from 54.2, a six-month low, with both manufacturing and…
Maintain a modestly defensive allocation as retail sales show slowing consumption despite firmer underlying details. October US retail sales presented a mixed picture, with a second consecutive soft headline reading. Headline sales were flat, down from a…
Our Geopolitical strategists expect geopolitical risk to move sideways in 2026, as the US seeks a ceasefire with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections likely to result in gridlock. The Trump administration’s foreign policy will…
Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026
Maintain a modestly defensive stance as the Empire survey reinforces a picture of slow and fragile growth. The December Empire Manufacturing survey missed estimates, falling to -3.9 from 18.7 and implying a slight decline in activity. New orders fell to 0.0…
Our Global Investment strategists expect 2026 to mark the turning point from AI boom to bust, with their highest conviction trade (short QQQ / long TLT) positioned to capitalize. Internet infrastructure data offers a warning: Traffic kept rising even as capex…
Europe’s equity outperformance is real, and even stronger once adjusted for FX. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, Chief European Investment Strategist. Banks and defense stocks (not tech and communication services) have powered Europe’s…