Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

United States

US Consumer Inflation Expectations Unexpectedly Jump, Weighing On Sentiment
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63. Weaker-than-expected assessments of…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231012_184353.JPG
Will The Dollar Break Out Or Break Down?

This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Shelter Costs Drive Hotter-Than-Anticipated US Inflation
The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y – also above consensus estimates…
Daily Insights
Is It Time To Buy Bonds?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that has preceded several turning-points in the last few years. This suggests a two-thirds probability of a…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231012_120043.JPG
Bonds Are Great Again

US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds over stocks.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
f_image_20231012_145245.JPG
Get Ready For The Long Pause

Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Hotter-Than-Anticipated US PPI
The US PPI report came in hotter-than-anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.7% m/m to 0.5% m/m, it remains above expectations of a more pronounced moderation to 0.3% m/m. In particular, a 3.3% m/m increase in energy prices…
Daily Insights
FOMC Minutes: Most Still See Upside Risks To Inflation
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and emphasized that they remain…
Daily Insights
Fading Corporate Pricing Power
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US Investment strategists recently…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231011_100332.JPG
The Time To Buy Bonds

The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

Related Topics

Australia Canada Europe Japan New Zealand