United States
As the government shutdown nears its end, alternative data continue to show a gradually weakening US labor market. The October ADP report indicated slowing private-sector job growth, while Indeed data showed a decline in job openings, signaling softening…
US assets should benefit in the short run as investors recognize that US checks and balances still operate – and so does the election cycle.
Off-year election results are likely to bring an end to the 36-day US government shutdown, as Democrats and Republicans both have incentives to compromise. Democrats initiated the standoff to energize their base ahead of the elections but, with victories…
The October ADP report beat estimates but remains consistent with a stalled labor market and slowing job creation. The report showed 42k new private-sector jobs, while September was revised to a loss of 29k from 32k. Only half of industries reported job…
The October ISM Services PMI beat estimates, rising to 52.4 from 50.0, but volatility and mixed internals argue for a cautious interpretation. The strength was broad, led by a jump in new orders to 56.2 from 50.4, while employment, though still contracting,…
2025 has underscored widening policy and market divergence between the US and Canada, but Canadian yields still offer room for downside. The spread between the 2-year GoC yield and the overnight rate is less than 10 bps, compared with over 40 bps between the…
S&P 500: Tactical Checkpoint
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Our Geopolitical strategists view the Trump–Xi summit as a limited but market-friendly outcome, extending the tariff truce and reducing near-term geopolitical risk. While no trade deal was reached, modest concessions such as lower tariffs and a pause on…
The October ISM Manufacturing survey missed expectations, signaling sluggish growth and easing price pressures. The index slipped to 48.7 from 49.1, contracting for the eight consecutive month, driven by weaker production and lower inventories. The decline…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists see no immediate red flags for the bull market and recommend staying overweight equities and fixed income. The AI capex cycle remains intact. Equity distributions are exceeding issuance, and rising ROIC suggests the…