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Dispatches From the Future (January 2, 2027): The Return Of Nasdog

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
2026 Key Views: US Equity
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on equities in 2026, with monetary easing, fiscal support, GenAI capex, and strong earnings growth all favoring the asset class. While valuations are extended, they think bubble concerns are overstated,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Fed Is Back In “Wait And See” Mode

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates. 

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Cooling US Wage Growth Confirms A Demand-Driven Slowdown
Maintain a modestly defensive stance as cooling wage growth reinforces labor-market weakness. The delayed Q3 Employment Cost Index missed estimates, slowing to 0.8% q/q. The “core” ECI measure, which excludes incentives-paid occupations and provides a clearer…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Fed Path Still Too Optimistic For 2026
Maintain a long duration stance and favor curve steepeners as the Fed’s outlook remains too optimistic relative to ongoing labor and growth deterioration. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75%. The decision again drew two-sided dissents: Governor Miran…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
2026 Key Views: US Equity

We are constructive on equities in 2026, as monetary easing, fiscal support, GenAI-related capex, and strong earnings growth are unequivocally positive for the asset class. Valuations are extended, but concerns about a bubble are overstated. Despite the favorable backdrop, we expect the S&P 500 to return only 5–10%, ending 2026 between 7,200 and 7,500.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Rishabh Shah
NFIB: Mixed Signals, No Macro Turn
Maintain a modestly defensive stance as the NFIB shows no signs of a growth or labor-market re-acceleration. The November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat estimates, rising to 99.0 from 98.2 and slightly above its long-term average, but underlying…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
JOLTS: Labor Softness Persists Despite Higher Openings
Maintain long duration and favor tactical steepeners as the JOLTS data show no evidence of a labor-market re-acceleration. The delayed October JOLTS report showed job openings rising slightly to 7.67m from 7.66m, but underlying details do not point to renewed…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Positive USD-Equity Correlation Changes The Playbook
Watch the shift in correlation between equities and the USD; a positive co-movement will carry major implications for asset allocation and hedging. Shifting correlations have been a defining theme of the year. They often signal regime change. Correlations…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumption Hinges On A Stalled Labor Market
Expect more Fed easing than priced as stalled labor momentum and fragile consumption limit inflation pressure. The delayed September Personal Income & Outlays report showed a weaker picture than expected. Nominal income and spending beat estimates, but…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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