United States
Brent crude oil price surged by 2.96% to an 11-month high of 96.75 on Wednesday on the back of ongoing supply concerns and data from the US EIA showing an ongoing decline in domestic inventories. The weekly inventory draw accelerated to 2.2 million barrels in…
Although BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service regards fears of dedollarization as overblown, the team is bearish on the longer-term outlook for the greenback due to two key concerns. First, the dollar remains overvalued. It currently trades…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Survey results delivered a negative signal about the US consumption outlook on Tuesday. Although the present situation component inched up marginally in September, a 9.6-point drop in the expectations component to 73.7 drove…
On the surface, US housing market data is sending conflicting signals. On the one hand, both the FHFA as well as the S&P CoreLogic gauges of US house prices surprised to the upside in July and are now expanding on both a month-over-month and…
The year-to-date rally in US cyclical stocks has fizzled. After climbing 29% in the first seven months of the year, cyclical equities are down 6.0% since the beginning of August. This drop is happening in the context of a general equity selloff. However, the…
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To this end, BCA’s US equity…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the GDP tracking indicators produced by regional Fed banks are sending different signals about economic conditions in the US. While the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests Q3 growth is around 4.9%, the New York Fed and…
Tech stocks have recently been bearing the brunt of the US equity selloff. The Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors – home to major H1 outperformers including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla – have both underperformed the…
Last week, the Federal Reserve signaled that it expects to deliver one last rate hike this year. Similarly, some of its European counterparts signaled that they are at or close to the end of their hiking cycles. Where does this leave the outlook for USD…