United States
Since July, the DXY index is up 4.5% from the lows. On a broader trade-weighted basis, the Federal Reserve’s measure of the nominal dollar is up 2.9%. The usual suspects for dollar strength have been weakness in global export/manufacturing sectors, which have…
In this report, we assess the best opportunities in inflation-linked bonds in the major developed economies, based on trends in growth, inflation and the stance of monetary policies in each country. We conclude that the environment is turning more challenging for European inflation-linked bond performance versus nominal government bonds, while the opposite is true in Japan. In the US, US TIPS breakevens have likely peaked, particularly at the short end.
US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Thursday. The 5.2% m/m decline in new orders for manufactured durable goods came in below expectations of a 4.0% m/m decrease and marks the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. On the one hand,…
Nvidia’s stock price hit a fresh all-time high on Thursday after its blockbuster Q2 earnings call. The company reported it generated $13.51 billion in revenue last month (above expectations of $11.2 billion) and forecasted an increase to $16 billion in Q3…
In a June insight, we discussed the possibility of a sustained lumber rally due in part to resilient housing market activity in the US and supply constraints in Canada, a major exporter of lumber. Since then, prices have remained largely flat. On the…
August PMI Data Supports European Bond Outperformance Vs. USTs & JGBs
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Results of the Philadelphia Fed’s August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey sent a negative signal on Tuesday. The diffusion index for firms’ assessment of general business activity across the region relapsed and fell by 14.5 points to -13.1, indicating…
The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households’ ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – is now at its lowest level since last October. At 69.5 in…
The jubilant summer rally came to a halt in August, with the S&P 500 down 4.4% MTD. A confluence of factors has weighed on the performance of US equities ranging from economic malaise in China to too-hot economic data and surging long Treasury…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 election as long as it is not discredited by a major shock. But recession odds are not low. The US economy has enjoyed a lot of positive surprises…