United States
Our clients are relatively optimistic about 2026, expecting the US to avoid a recession. 46% of respondents to this week’s poll on the BCA website expect a Soft Landing next year. However, responses from other platforms were not as upbeat. X respondents were…
Our key US fixed income views for 2026.
Our Global Investment strategists believe the risk of a “Metaverse Moment” in AI is rising and recommend increasing caution toward AI stocks and the broader S&P 500. This inflection occurs when markets begin penalizing companies for capex expansion, signs…
A politically aligned Fed nominee would likely receive a grace period, but investors should still add inflation hedges to their strategic allocation. New reporting indicates that current WH NEC Director Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to succeed Chair…
The Beige Book’s indicates that the risk of rising unemployment is greater than that of higher inflation. The November report showed a relatively unchanged US economy, with overall activity little changed. Consumer spending declined further, consistent with…
The November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell again, underscoring a weak but not collapsing economy that keeps the Fed on track to ease. The index dropped to 88.7 from 95.5, with both the present situation (126.9 from 131.2) and expectations…
The September PPI report came in cooler than expected, reinforcing limited inflation pressures and supporting underweights in TIPS versus nominals Treasuries. Headline PPI rose 0.3% m/m after a 0.1% decline in August, while core PPI excluding food, energy,…
US September retail sales disappointed, reinforcing signs of slowing consumption and warranting a modestly defensive positioning. Headline sales rose 0.2% m/m, down from 0.6% in August, while core sales excluding autos and gas grew just 0.1%, down from a…
Our US Equity strategists remain equal weight Consumer Services and underweight Consumer Staples, as Q3 earnings revealed widening performance gaps across income segments. Results were solid on both revenue and earnings, but with valuations already stretched,…
The November Dallas Fed manufacturing survey painted a mixed picture, with softer business sentiment but improving production and stable employment. The headline index fell to -10.4 from -5.0, while the production component jumped 15 points to 20.5, showing…