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United States

Hit, Miss, Moving Forward

Momentum, high cash balances, FOMO, and expectations of soft landing drive the market higher. This rally may continue for a while, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying and will eventually derail the rally. It is too early to celebrate victory.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
So Much For Détente?

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
Recession Delayed, But Not Denied
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator continues to warn about the economic outlook. The month-on-month rate of change and the six-month rate of change showed the index declining at a faster pace. Weaker consumer expectations for business…
Daily Insights
On The Resilience Of DM Energy Stocks
Oil Prices have gone through a dramatic boom bust cycle over the past 18 months. After rising almost 80% in the first quarter of 2022 following the war in Ukraine, Brent has fallen all the way back towards $70/bbl – where it was at the start of last year. …
Daily Insights
Bond Market Positioning Is Very Bullish
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors maintain above-benchmark portfolio duration. However, the team is monitoring bond positioning as a potential catalyst that could push yields higher. JP Morgan’s Treasury Investor Sentiment Survey…
Daily Insights
Risky Asset Prices, A Looming Recession, And The Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen is typically a counter-cyclical currency. As shown in the chart above, the correlation between global stock prices and the yen is usually negative. However, over the past year, the yen’s correlation with risky asset prices has shifted…
Daily Insights
LMEX: What’s Behind The Recent Gains?
Industrial metals have been rallying in recent weeks. The London Metals Exchange Metals Index (LMEX) – a weighted index that captures the price movement of primary aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead, copper, and tin – has increased by 6.3% since late-May. Notably,…
Daily Insights
Will Energy Stocks Continue Underperforming?
For the most part, the US equity rally has been rather narrow this year – concentrated among stocks that investors perceive will be the key winners of recent AI developments. In the first five months of the year, only three S&P 500 sectors were in the…
Daily Insights
Watch Interest Rates, Not The Balance Sheet
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, when the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies are sending opposite signals, listen to interest rates. There seems to be some worry among investors that the coming increase in Treasury cash…
Daily Insights
US Energy Outlook: Democracies Run On Oil

We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

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