United States
In this *Special Report*, we analyze the dollar’s reserve status within the context of geopolitical crosscurrents. In our view, there is more than meets the eye when betting on the end of the dollar’s reserve status.
In this US Bond Strategy Insight we discuss the outlook for bank bonds.
Financial commentators, politicians and policymakers have increasingly been blaming stubbornly high inflation on companies pursuing aggressive pricing strategies to boost earnings and margins. In this Special Report, we investigate the concept of “greedflation” – companies persistently raising prices faster than costs are increasing to pad profit margins - and see if the associated conclusions about corporate pricing power and inflation are borne out by the data in the US, euro area and UK.
Global growth will weaken in the coming months, yet monetary authorities worldwide will be reluctant to ease policy. This state of affairs foreshadows a clash between markets and policymakers in the months ahead. China’s recovery is losing steam. The latest divergence between Emerging Asian and LATAM currencies will not last.
EM oil demand remains resilient and will continue to be propelled by global growth this year. Supply management by OPEC 2.0 and production discipline outside the coalition will be maintained, forcing inventories lower. Recent price weakness – largely reflecting political uncertainty – has pulled our 2023 Brent forecast down to $90/bbl (from $95/bbl); our 2024 forecast remains at $115/bbl.
