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United States

Equity Sector Performance Following A Pivot To Easing
“Bad news is good news” has emerged as the dominant market narrative over the past month. The early-March bank turmoil caused investors to raise their expectations of a Fed pivot to cutting interest rates in H2 in response to a deteriorating economic outlook.…
Daily Insights
Evidence in Support of the Kinked Phillips Curve
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, if we really are on the steep side of the aggregate supply curve, then falling demand will largely drive down inflation without driving down employment. Many investors and market commentators…
Daily Insights
Macro Investors Are About To Make A Huge Mistake

A benign disinflation is probable during the remainder of 2023. Unfortunately, just when most people become convinced that a recession has been avoided, a recession will begin.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Wage Growth Reaccelerates
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker reaccelerated in March, contradicting the signal from Average Hourly Earnings. The former rose from 6.1% to 6.4% (albeit below the 2022 peak of 6.7%) as the latter eased from 4.6% to 4.2%. Notably, service-sector wage…
Daily Insights
The Market Narratives We Disagree With

There are several widespread market narratives regarding US inflation, the Fed’s policy, global manufacturing/trade and China’s recovery that we disagree with. In this report, we explain our reasoning and where it puts us in terms of investment strategies.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Will Cathie Wood's Ark Funds Outperform?

Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
The Shelter Disinflation Has Begun
The US core consumer price index grew 0.38% in March, down from 0.45% in February and the lowest monthly print since November. The year-over-year core inflation rate is still a worryingly high 5.60%, but there is mounting evidence that a downtrend has begun. …
Daily Insights
Less Positive 
Less Positive  Less…
Daily Insights
Too Many Cuts Priced For 2023
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the US economy will be strong enough to avoid rate cuts in 2023. As such, the 49 bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 are misplaced. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting contained a few interesting…
Daily Insights
One And Done

Today’s releases of the March CPI and March FOMC minutes do not change our view that the Fed will deliver one more 25 basis point rate increase before going on hold.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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