Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

United States

Think US Layoffs Aren’t Rising? Think Again

Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in the number of job losers in the coming months, the correct investment strategy is still to position for a US recession that starts in 2023.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Small Businesses Face Tougher Borrowing Conditions
Results from the US NFIB survey reveal that small businesses grew slightly more pessimistic in March with the Optimism index relapsing to 90.1 from 90.9. Importantly, small business owners face greater difficulty accessing credit. The net share of…
Daily Insights
Will Eurozone Stocks Continue Outperforming?
Euro Area stocks have gained 41.4% in USD terms since their late-September bottom. In the process, they have outperformed their US counterparts by 29%. After a brief period of weakness during the early-March bank turmoil, Eurozone equities are once again…
Daily Insights
Sell In May? Or In April?
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the second half of the year will be challenging for equities There are many reasons that make the team wary of the durability of the rally, among which: Economic growth will continue to slow: …
Daily Insights
Spring Cleaning: Closing Selected Cyclical Trades

Several signs have emerged that the “bad news is good news” rally has run its course. Despite deteriorating economic data, the Fed is expected to maintain its “higher for longer” stance, disappointing the market. A rate cut is likely is only in case of a severe downturn, but that will not offer support to equities, until earnings growth bottoms. We recommend shifting a portfolio toward a defensive stance, and away from cyclicals at this juncture. We downgrade Auto to an underweight, and Capital Goods and Energy Equipment and Services to an equal weight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold?
Friday’s US jobs report came in broadly in line with consensus estimates. Nonfarm payroll employment slowed from 326 thousand to 236 thousand in March. Increases in service sector and government employment offset a 7 thousand decline in the goods-producing…
Daily Insights
Less Extreme Treasury Technicals And Valuations
At the end of last week, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level in seven months, before climbing higher on Monday. The bank stress that emerged in early-March was the catalyst for this rally in Treasuries, causing investors to re-assess their Fed…
Daily Insights
Poor Fundamentals Will Weigh On Tech Hardware & Equipment
Poor Fundamentals Will Weigh On Tech Hardware & Equipment …
Daily Insights
What Are Clients Asking?

Is there a lot of cash on the sidelines ready to be deployed? Would the US recession not be bearish for the US dollar and help EM like it did in the early 2000s? Why can the US investment playbook of the past 15-25 years not be used in this cycle?

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Gridlocked Fiscal Policy
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, congressional gridlock is a bigger problem now that financial instability has emerged. The two political parties are evenly divided in Congress and public opinion. The country cannot react quickly…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Australia Canada Europe Japan New Zealand See more Topics