United States

When complexity collapses, it is a red flag for impending tail-events, heart attacks, and reversals in the markets. We describe how to measure complexity, how to spot the red flag that it has collapsed, and list some investments that are approaching potential turning-points.

Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical risk should encourage investors to maintain a defensive position for the coming 12 months.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2023.

High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

Is the European banking system hiding nasty surprises? How will the recent stress affect European growth and the ECB’s policy outlook?

We think the banking turmoil set off by Silicon Valley Bank’s failure will prove to be less than it’s been cracked up to be and that it will not derail the near-term equity we expect.

This week we are sending you a Style Chart Pack, which now includes a standalone macro section, as well as macro, fundamentals, valuations, technicals, and uses of cash charts for the S&P 500, Defensives vs. Cyclicals, Growth vs. Value, and Small vs. Large. In the front section of this publication, we will review recent equity performance, and attempt to answer real estate sector-related questions that are foremost in investors’ minds.

This US Bond Strategy Insight takes an in-depth look at core non-housing services inflation.