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United States

Too Hot, Too Cold, Both Or Neither?

A run of hot January data shook up financial markets, but we think they overreacted. We remain constructive on equities and the economy in the near term.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US: Still No Recession in Sight
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s view continues to be that inflation, rather than recession, is the bigger risk for 2023. Nevertheless, even in the US where inflationary pressures are most acute, there are still significant deflationary…
Daily Insights
Upwardly Revised Unit Labor Costs: Bad News For Stocks
Revised Q4 productivity and unit labor cost estimates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics add to the string of data released over the past month suggesting that the Fed’s task of reining in inflationary pressures is not over yet. Nonfarm productivity…
Daily Insights
A Headfake For Sentiment?
Since the S&P 500 slid into bear market territory in June 2022, clients have frequently asked when the right time is to increase equity allocations again. A widely followed measure of investor sentiment suggests it is too early to do so. The difference…
Daily Insights
US: Fire Up The Machines
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service expects US fixed asset investments to pick up in the coming years. The industrial sector has floated in the doldrums after trading in a range for close to ten years following the global financial crisis. Since…
Daily Insights
Hot Or Not?

Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term focused investors should start raising cash allocations by trimming their equity holdings.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US February ISM Manufacturing Report: More Bond-Bearish News
The February US ISM Manufacturing report was boring at the headline level, but with more interesting developments on future US growth and inflation embedded within the index – news that triggered a meaningful jump in US bond yields. The overall ISM index…
Daily Insights
How High For The 10-Year US Treasury Yield?
The Federal Reserve will update its economic and interest rate projections when it meets later this month. While this will provide markets with greater clarity about the future path for the fed funds rate, there will still be a lot of uncertainty about how…
Daily Insights
Recency Bias & Comparisons With The 2001 Cycle
Recency Bias & Comparisons With The 2001 Cycle …
Daily Insights
Fire Up The Machines

US domestic politics, hypo-globalization, and Great Power Competition favor a revival of US manufacturing capacity. The industrial sector will benefit from the attempt to rebuild US manufacturing. Go long physical infrastructure and defense stocks. Find opportunities to take a long position on the universe versus the metaverse.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri

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