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United States

Preparing To Pause

Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered an important speech last week in which she laid out the intellectual justification for the Fed to soon pause its rate hike cycle. This week’s report reviews her arguments and explains how they inform our monetary policy and investment views.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Leading Economic Index Deteriorates Further
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 1.0% m/m in December, following a 1.1% m/m drop in the prior month and below consensus expectations of a 0.7% decline. Non-financial variables led the December decline, particularly gauges of demand…
Daily Insights
Heed The Signal From US Homebuilder Stocks?
US homebuilder stocks have been steadily outperforming in recent months, up 29% since the S&P 500’s October 12 bottom – 18 percentage points above the benchmark index. The nearly 100bp decline in the 30-year mortgage rate since early November,…
Daily Insights
The Big Bank Beige Book
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service concludes that the biggest banks’ earnings commentary supports the team’s sanguine near-term view. Despite some fraying at the lowest end of the income and wealth distributions, consumers continue to hold deposit…
Daily Insights
The Big Bank Beige Book, January 2023

Our latest edition of the Big Bank Beige Book suggests that households, businesses and banks are in unusually good shape ahead of a recession.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Tech Stocks: A Sustained Rally?
Following the dismal performance of the S&P 500 Information Technology index last year, the sector has been participating in the recent equity rally. Does the 9.3% gain since the October 12 bottom mark the beginning of a sustainable rally in tech stocks? …
Daily Insights
It’s Not Like Gymnastics: The Economics Of Soft Landings

Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy will intensify over the coming months, allowing equities to rally. However, even if an equilibrium of high employment and low inflation is reached, it will be difficult to keep the economy there. Investors should remain tactically bullish on stocks but look to turn defensive in the second half of 2023.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Do US Job Cut Announcements Presage Aggregate Labor Market Deterioration?
Last week, 190 thousand initial unemployment claims (IUC) were filed in the US, below expectations they would increase from the prior week’s 205 thousand. On a 4-week moving average basis, initial unemployment claims have now reached an 8-month low,…
Daily Insights
CRB Raw Industrials/Gold Ratio: A Warning For Cyclicals/Defensives?
The signal from commodity markets warns against the durability of the outperformance of US cyclical equities relative to defensives. In particular, while most commodities have benefitted from a weakening dollar in recent months, the CRB Raw Industrials…
Daily Insights
US Retail Sales, Manufacturing Production Disappoint In December
Preliminary estimates indicate that the value of US retail sales fell by a larger-than-expected 1.1% in December following a downwardly revised 1% decrease in November, marking the largest monthly decline since December 2021. Department stores (-6.6% m/m),…
Daily Insights

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