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United States

The BCA Score's safety tilt pays off in a turbulent year. USHQ outperformed the SPY in December and USHQ SMID performed inline with its MSCI US SMID Cap benchmark.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.

The ISM Services PMI slid by 6.9 points to 49.6 in December, against expectations it would ease to 55.0, and marking the first contraction in service activity in 30 months. Outside of the pandemic-related slump, the December print marks the weakest reading…

This digest version of our Special Report contains its conclusion along with a high-level review of how we reached it. It is structured identically to the full document, but with less than half the word count, so a reader can swiftly absorb the punch line while easily moving between the versions to zoom in on the details most relevant to his/her process.

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro, valuations, fundamentals, technicals, and the uses of cash. Our goal is to equip you with all the data you need to make investment decisions in these sectors.

Workers have a cyclical wind at their backs as labor demand exceeds supply, but a wage-price spiral is no more than a remote possibility. The structural backdrop has turned significantly against them since the last bout of high inflation 40-plus years ago and they are no longer price makers.

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223 thousand jobs in December, from 256 thousand in November and beating expectations of a larger decrease. Meanwhile, Household Survey data indicate that the number of employed workers increased by 717 thousand in December,…
Durable manufactured goods orders slid by 1.8% m/m in November, following a downwardly revised 0.4% m/m. However, contracting transportation equipment orders (-6.3% m/m) drove the bulk of the overall decline in November (they had led the increases in durable…
The Barclays US Aggregate TR index lost 13.6% last year as the Fed’s tightening cycle’s impact on yields trumped the effect of a deteriorating economy. Although the weakness was broad-based, relatively safer segments of the bond market mostly performed…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service is more optimistic than the consensus among investors on the near-term outlook. In contrast to the prevailing negative mood, they expect global growth to surprise on the upside in 2023. In the US, the…