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United States

Conditionally Yours

Investors were heartened by the November CPI report, but the Fed said not so fast. Although it snuffed out the latest mini-rally, ongoing disinflation will set the stage for another one early next year.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Retail Sales Disappoint
The November US retail sales report delivered a negative surprise. Overall retail sales fell by 0.6% m/m, marking a deterioration from October’s 1.3% m/m increase and missing expectations of a smaller 0.2% m/m decline. Notably, the November figure is the…
Daily Insights
2023 Key Views: ‘Chimerica’ In Trouble

Both the US and China have structural imbalances that need correcting. The former has a structurally imbalanced labour market in which demand far outstrips supply. The latter has a massively overvalued housing market. The concurrent correction of these two structural imbalances in the world’s two largest economies will necessitate a sharp slowdown in global growth, and leads to several investment conclusions.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Downshift
As expected, the Fed slowed the pace of rate hikes at its Wednesday meeting, opting to lift interest rates by 50bps following four consecutive 75bp increases. The statement was unchanged, with the Fed reiterating that it “anticipates ongoing increases in the…
Daily Insights
US Equity Sector Earnings Will Be Revised Lower
BCA’s annual outlook for 2023 concludes that “either the onset of recession in the US, or a further decline in risky asset prices in anticipation of an eventual US recession, will likely occur at some point next year.” The report also highlights that the…
Daily Insights
US CPI Inflation Eases Further In November
US CPI inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in November. The headline figure eased to 0.1% m/m (7.1% y/y), falling below consensus estimates. Core inflation was also softer-than-anticipated, moderating to 0.2% m/m (6.0% y/y) from 0.3% m/m (6.3%…
Daily Insights
Will An Improvement In US Consumer Confidence Boost Equities?
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey suggest that American household morale firmed in December. The headline index climbed 2.3 points following November’s decline to 56.8. Importantly, consumers’ assessment of current…
Daily Insights
S&P 500 Pricing Power: A Sector Breakdown
S&P 500 Pricing Power: A Sector Breakdown …
Daily Insights
S&P Valuations Ahead Of Bear Markets
S&P Valuations Ahead Of Bear Markets …
Daily Insights
2023 Key Views: Preparing For A Pivot Of Our Own

Following the release of the Bank Credit Analyst’s annual outlook, we unveil our key views for 2023. The investment strategy takeaway is that we want to lean into risk in the early part of the year but reduce exposure to it in the second half.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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