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United States

US Earnings Outlook: They Will Get Worse Before They Get Better
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service concludes that earnings will continue on a downward path in 2023, and analyst downgrades are highly likely. Earnings growth is key to 2023 equity performance. With economic growth deteriorating, it is reasonable to…
Daily Insights
Is Our Consumption Thesis Still Valid?

Labor market strength and consumers’ evident willingness to dip into their pandemic savings keep our optimistic consumer thesis intact. We remain tactically overweight equities.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
A Temporary Peak In European Inflation

European inflation will decline through 2023, which will greatly help households and consumption. But can European inflation remain low after that?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
US Jobs And Wage Growth Run Hot In November
US nonfarm payrolls increased by a greater-than-expected 263 thousand jobs in November, following an upwardly revised 284 thousand gain in October. Although the participation rate edged down to 62.1%, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Most notably,…
Daily Insights
Why Have Energy Stocks Diverged From Oil Prices?
Over the past few months, energy equities have diverged from oil prices. Although the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has fallen by 4% since mid-July, the S&P Energy index has gained 34.4% over this period, outperforming the S&P 500 by…
Daily Insights
GAA Quant Model Updates

MacroQuant is overweight bonds, underweight equities, and neutral on cash. Within the equity universe, the model is underweight the US and overweight Japan, the UK, and Australia.

Global Asset Allocation by Pratik Bhanuse, Lucas Laskey
US And Global Manufacturing PMIs Contract
The ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted in November for the first time since mid-2020. It fell to 49.3 from 50.2, corroborating the downbeat signal from the alternative S&P Global PMI which declined by 2.7 points to 47.7. Details of the report underscore…
Daily Insights
Can Small Caps Outperform In 2023?
Over the past two months, the S&P 600 Small Cap index has gained nearly 17%, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 large cap benchmark by 3.1%. This marks an improvement in the fate of small caps, which have generally fallen in line with their larger…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: A Year Of Two Halves

Recession is not yet fully priced in, so markets have further to fall next year. But watch for a buying opportunity in the second half.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
An Update On Cryptos, Blockchains, And Web 3.0 Post The FTX Debacle

Web 3.0 plays will boom in the coming decade. Play this through a diversified exposure to today’s main blockchain tokens. But the Web 2.0 oligopolies, like Amazon and Meta, are in big trouble.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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