United States
The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.
US Q3 GDP was revised higher in the second estimate to 2.9% from the initial 2.6%. In particular, consumer spending is now estimated to have contributed 1.18 percentage points to GDP – up from the initial 0.97 percentage points – with stronger services…
Results from the Jolts Survey continue to indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings fell from 10.7 million to 10.3 million in October, in line with the general downtrend that started in Q2. The survey’s other measures…
After collapsing earlier this year, the US Economic Surprise Index has been recovering and returned to positive territory at the beginning of November. A positive reading indicates that economic data releases have generally surprised to the upside, beating…
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell from 102.2 to 100.2 in November, marking a second consecutive month of decline following a brief improvement in Q3. Both the Present Situation and Expectations sub-indices declined from downwardly revised…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends that investors nudge portfolio duration up to neutral as we head into 2023. Then, starting in January, the team's task will be to call the cyclical peak in Treasury yields once they are confident that the…
This week we present six key investment views for 2023.
The US October CPI report showed a broad-based moderation of inflationary pressures, suggesting that price pressures have likely peaked and will continue to ease going forward. A wage-price spiral -- whereby workers demand higher wages to compensate for…
The S&P 500 Industrials sector is among the top performers in the recent equity rally, gaining 17% since October 12. On a year-to-date basis, the sector’s 6.2% decline is more muted than the benchmark’s 16.8% drop. Industrial stocks’ relative…
Crypto broker FTX’s bankruptcy does not pose a systemic threat to markets. It did reveal something deeply unflattering about excess liquidity, however, and suggests that other private investments may come a cropper.