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United States

The Risk Of Stagflation

Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two, however, we are worried about stagflation.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Profit Margins: Miracle Or Fluke?

The resilience of US non-tech companies' profitability has not been driven by top-line growth but by falling costs, which safeguarded profit margins. Presently, risks in US stocks outweigh the potential rewards – margin sustainability is uncertain while equity valuations are very stretched.

Emerging Markets Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan, Ziyuan Huang
Employment Weakness Undermines ISM Services Strength
August ISM Services beat expectations, but employment weakness highlights fragile momentum. The index rose to 52.0 from 50.1, driven by business activity and new orders. However, the employment component stayed in contraction at 46.5. Inflation signals…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Weak Claims, ADP, and ISM Data Point to Fragile Jobs Outlook
US jobless claims rose to 237k, the highest since July, underscoring fragile labor momentum. While still below the recent 250k peak, claims have been rising steadily since early July, suggesting the labor market weakness seen in the July employment…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
July JOLTS Confirms Slowing Labor Market Momentum
US job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, underscoring continued labor market weakening. Openings declined to 7.18m from 7.36m. The decline was led by non-cyclical sectors such as education and health services, which had recently been drivers of…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Watch The Unemployment Rate

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Great Rebalancing
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upgrade the Chinese yuan to overweight as global imbalances between production and consumption begin to reverse. The US continues to overconsume and underproduce, while China overproduces and underconsumes. Early signs…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Manufacturing Suggests Fragile Recovery, Not Turnaround
August ISM Manufacturing was mixed, with stronger orders offset by weak production and employment. The headline rose to 48.7 from 48.0, missing expectations. New orders beat estimates, rising into expansion at 51.4 and lifting the New…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trading Global Yield Curves: Where Steepeners Still Work

Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
The US Consumer Hasn’t Buckled Yet
July income and spending data confirmed resilient consumption and sticky inflation, however, slowing labor momentum keeps us defensive. Real personal spending increased 0.3% m/m. Personal income rose 0.4% m/m, with real income ex-transfer payments…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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