United States
A Supreme Court strike-down of tariffs could still leave scope for President Trump to reinstate them under different statutes, while allowing a net reduction in tariff rates ahead of the midterms. Barring any major data surprise or US strikes on Iran, the…
The February Empire survey points to expanding manufacturing activity, adding to signs of improving macro momentum. The headline index was little changed at 7.1 and slightly beat estimates. New orders moderated but remained in expansion, while shipments…
The capex debate is better framed not as boom versus bubble, but as around capacity, leverage, and cash conversion. ROEs have compressed, but revenue growth and margin expansion offer a credible path back. Spenders likely have time to make good on their investments, though the market’s leash may be shorter than anticipated.
January US CPI cooled slightly, with leading indicators pointing to further disinflation later this year. Headline inflation fell to 2.4% y/y in January from 2.7%. Similarly, core also cooled to 2.5% from 2.6%, in line with estimates. Core goods inflation…
Core inflation will get close to the Fed’s 2% target by the end of this year.
January’s upside jobs surprise creates a risk for our long duration and steepeners recommendations for US bond portfolios. The employment report exceeded expectations, hinting at rebounding job growth and stabilizing labor market utilization. This was…
The January employment report exceeded expectations, pointing to a genuine pickup in labor demand and reducing the urgency for near-term Fed easing. Nonfarm payrolls rose 130k, up from 48k in December. Net revisions to November and December lowered payrolls…
The labor market tightened in January, significantly lowering the odds of a H1 2026 rate cut. Rate cuts driven by lower inflation are still likely in H2 2026.
The January NFIB survey points to broad-based weakness among small businesses, reinforcing signs of easing labor market conditions amid mixed growth signals. The January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, easing to 99.3 from 99.5 in…
Rumors around the possible exit of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are unlikely to materially alter the trajectory of US trade policy. While the Epstein scandal is widening across US and UK politics, our US Political strategists caution against…