United States
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upgrade the Chinese yuan to overweight as global imbalances between production and consumption begin to reverse. The US continues to overconsume and underproduce, while China overproduces and underconsumes. Early signs…
August ISM Manufacturing was mixed, with stronger orders offset by weak production and employment. The headline rose to 48.7 from 48.0, missing expectations. New orders beat estimates, rising into expansion at 51.4 and lifting the New…
Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market.
July income and spending data confirmed resilient consumption and sticky inflation, however, slowing labor momentum keeps us defensive. Real personal spending increased 0.3% m/m. Personal income rose 0.4% m/m, with real income ex-transfer payments…
Regional Fed surveys point to low GDP growth, not an outright recession, which tactically supports low growth plays such as duration and tech. These timely surveys provide a snapshot of current month activity, combining “objective” indicators such as…
July US durable goods orders rebounded, but investment signals remain subdued and favor duration and tech. Orders fell 2.8% m/m after a 9.4% June drop, better than expected. Core measures excluding volatile components were stronger, with nondefense…
Volatility has fallen to 2025 lows even as positioning data show caution despite the S&P 500’s steady rebound. US equities have climbed back to all-time highs with minimal drawdown, steadily compressing realized volatility and pulling implied…
Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook raises Fed-independence risks, reinforcing steepener trades. The announcement, aimed at expanding presidential control over the central bank, saw equities fall and bonds initially rally on the prospect of more cuts…
Mixed consumer confidence data and weakening labor signals argue for a modestly defensive stance. The August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index beat expectations but fell from an upwardly revised 98.7. The present situation component edged lower…
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was misread, and points to cautious dovishness. Some commentators called it hawkish, others suggested the Fed abandoned its 2% target. Neither is accurate. Central bank communication is rarely binary; it operates across…