United States
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists advise investors to remain open to the possibility that a new Cold War dynamic is forming in global trade. While the US-China rivalry does not map perfectly onto the original Cold War, the analogy retains analytical value. US…
BCA’s Commodity strategists remain long gold/short LME copper and have initiated an outright short in LME copper as a cyclical trade. The US copper tariff will redirect supply away from the US, replenishing depleted inventories elsewhere and exerting downward…
Rising political pressure on the Fed risks undermining policy credibility, risking a de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations. The Trump administration keeps escalating attacks on Fed Chair Powell. While the Fed cannot ease proactively amid…
The USD remains structurally challenged, but near-term tactical conditions suggest a temporary bottom is in place. After a sustained selloff and rising concerns around its reserve status, the dollar has decoupled from rate differentials, a behavior more…
BCA’s US Equity strategists reiterate their overweight stance on Banks and Diversified Financials. Q2 results were solid, with resilient consumer strength and a rebound in capital markets activity. Net interest margins are stabilizing, and modest loan…
June US housing data surprised to the upside, but the broader sector is still weak, reinforcing our modest underweight on equities. Housing starts rose an annualized 4.6% m/m, and building permits ticked up 0.2% after a 2.0% decline in May. Gains were…
Rising US macro uncertainty and external imbalances are reinforcing euro strength and are supportive of a long-term bullish view on EUR/USD. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist for Developed Markets ex US.Trump’s policy agenda is…
Consumer sentiment improved modestly in July, but remains at levels that still point to subdued spending, reinforcing our defensive stance. The preliminary University of Michigan index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 in June. Expectations edged up to 58.6, while…
BCA’s Global Asset Allocation strategists find that international diversification outperforms home bias in both bonds and equities, especially when FX risk is hedged. Unhedged foreign bonds have consistently underperformed domestic bonds across nearly all…
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive.