United States
US retail sales point to growing consumer weakness. December US retail sales missed expectations across the board and slowed from November. The headline and core measures excluding gas and/or autos were flat, while the control group used to calculate GDP fell…
After weakening through 2025, US growth indicators now point to stabilization at a weak level. Our US growth diffusion index, which combines 90 hard and soft indicators and has historically led GDP turning points, shows growth stabilizing. Importantly, this…
US inflation expectations remain well anchored, preserving policy flexibility as labor market risks stay elevated. The NY Fed’s January Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a decline in 1-year inflation expectations, while 3-year and 5-year expectations…
Our Global Investment strategists argue it remains too early to bet on housing becoming a key driver of US economic growth this year. The residential real estate market remains soft, and unlike the AI boom, residential investment was a drag on growth in…
Earnings strength, durability, and breadth are all improving. As the market transitions from multiple-driven to earnings-driven returns, this backdrop supports continued gains in 2026—but with less concentration and greater scope for laggards to catch up rather than leaders to roll over.
Robust forward EPS growth signals a strong earnings backdrop heading into 2026. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Noah Weisberger, our new Chief US Equity Strategist. Noah expects equity performance in 2026 to be increasingly driven by topline growth…
The delayed December JOLTS report confirms the US labor market remains in a stable but fragile “low hiring, low firing” regime. Job openings missed estimates and fell to 6.54m from a downwardly revised 6.93m, translating into a 0.3 percentage point decline in…
The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year.
The January ISM Services report showed mixed growth signals along with inflationary pressures. The January ISM Services PMI was roughly in line with expectations and unchanged at 53.8 from December. The details of the report were weak: Employment slowed to…
The US labor market remains weak but stable, leaving both labor conditions and US rates at a pivotal point. Given the partial government shutdown, Friday’s January employment report has been postponed to February 11. Alternative data show the US labor market…