The November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell again, underscoring a weak but not collapsing economy that keeps the Fed on track to ease. The index dropped to 88.7 from 95.5, with both the present situation (126.9 from…
The September PPI report came in cooler than expected, reinforcing limited inflation pressures and supporting underweights in TIPS versus nominals Treasuries. Headline PPI rose 0.3% m/m after a 0.1% decline in August, while core PPI…
Our US Equity strategists remain equal weight Consumer Services and underweight Consumer Staples, as Q3 earnings revealed widening performance gaps across income segments. Results were solid on both revenue and earnings, but with…
The November Dallas Fed manufacturing survey painted a mixed picture, with softer business sentiment but improving production and stable employment. The headline index fell to -10.4 from -5.0, while the production component jumped 15…
November flash PMIs confirmed sluggish global momentum, reinforcing a defensive stance with tactical support for the USD. The US composite PMI rose to 54.8, driven by stronger services but weaker manufacturing. The Euro area showed a…
The November Philadelphia Fed survey missed expectations, showing manufacturing activity remains subdued with little momentum. Although the headline index rose to -1.7 from -12.8, new orders and shipments both slipped into…
September’s stronger-than-expected jobs report is unlikely to sway a divided FOMC, but labor market trends remain weak beneath the headlines. Nonfarm payrolls rose 119k after a downwardly revised -4k in August, but net revisions…
The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.
The October FOMC minutes underscored deep divisions over the Fed’s next move, reinforcing expectations for a December hold but keeping the easing bias intact. The 10–2 vote for a 25 bps cut included dissents on both sides (Governor…
Our Counterpoint strategists recommend neutral equity exposure and underweight duration, warning that a market crash driven by fragility could drive a recession in 2026–27. A major, underappreciated structural development is the post…