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United States

Dovish Surprises Are Coming
Expect broad-based dovish surprises from major central banks, and stay overweight UK and euro area government bonds. Our Global Fixed Income, European, and FX strategists published a joint update of BCA’s Central Bank Monitors. They expect the Bank of…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Stock-Bond Correlation Finds Its Footing Amid Fiscal Risks
The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation concerns, while a positive one reflects growth optimism. In…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Take Profits On US Utilities
Our US Equity strategists are closing their tactical overweight in Utilities, as the trade is now crowded and priced for perfection. While the long-term outlook remains attractive, near-term upside is limited given elevated expectations and stretched…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Soft CPI Won’t Sway A Fed Fighting Tariff Inflation
April’s CPI came in cooler than expected, but tariff-driven supply shocks will keep the Fed tight, supporting long-duration exposure. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (2.3% y/y) while core inflation held steady at 2.8%. Services inflation remained firm at 3.7%, and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Small Businesses Freeze Hiring As Uncertainty Lingers
Small business sentiment remains recessionary, supporting our defensive asset allocation stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell less than expected to 95.8, reinforcing the cratering in soft data witnessed since the election with policy…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Rotation Will Continue

Markets are pricing out the worst trade policy fears, and while tariffs will still dent earnings, the impact looks smaller than initially feared. With sector rotation gaining traction and oversold names rebounding, we are adjusting our portfolio to reflect the rotation thesis.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
The Curve Steepener Is The Trade For 2025

A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US fixed income.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Utilities: All The Positives Are In

Utilities remain a long-term structural investment theme thanks to the tailwinds from GenAI, EV, and onshoring.  However, there is little upside left over the tactical investment horizon as all the positives are priced in. We close our overweight and book profits. 

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Rishabh Shah
Still Heading For A Slowdown Despite US-China Thaw
The US-China trade truce triggered a market rally, but tight policy, lingering inflation risks, and tariff-related drag still support a defensive stance. Risk assets and the USD surged on Monday following the de-escalation announcement, while safe havens…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Hard Vs. Soft Data: Watch Claims, Not Retail Sales
Markets remain indifferent to soft data, but hard labor data still matters; a rise in jobless claims would offer a chance to extend duration. Survey-based indicators have collapsed, while hard data has held up, partly thanks to front-loading ahead of tariffs.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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