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United States

Central Bank Monitor Update: Trade Uncertainty Dominates

The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, European Investment Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Jeremie Peloso, Robert Timper, Deborah Acri
Q1 Earnings: Trade Risks Cloud the S&P 500 Outlook
Q1 Earnings: Trade Risks Clouds the S&P 500 Outlook …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Junk Bonds Cheapen Up

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Global Inflation Divergence
The inflation divergence between the US and Eurozone drives our call to stay long US duration. Inflation, typically a lagging indicator, blends slow-moving labor pressures with fast-moving supply drivers. The COVID inflation spike was a rare fusion of both,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Softcore Downturn


It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too sanguine about the risk of a US recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Miroslav Aradski
Watch This New High-Frequency Joshi Rule For A US Recession Trigger

Today, we are introducing an additional ‘high-frequency Joshi rule’ which is updated weekly. The Joshi rules tell us that a US recession is not imminent. Until the Joshi rules are triggered, overweight non-US government bonds, and especially UK gilts, versus US T-bonds. And shift cyclical asset allocation from overweight to neutral-weight bonds. Plus: tactically long USD/GBP and tactically underweight global industrials (EXI).

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Low Macro Correlations Hint at Tactical USD Opportunity
Cross-asset signals remain distorted by policy developments, but we expect the US dollar to rebound tactically. More than observable fundamentals, policy headlines have been driving cross-asset movements. Traditional leading indicators have had limited market…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Inflation Focus Keeps The Fed Tight Despite Soft Data Collapse
The Fed’s tight policy stance and focus on hard data reinforce our US Bond strategists’ call for above-benchmark duration and Treasury curve steepeners. As expected, the Fed held rates between 4.25% to 4.5% and flagged heightened uncertainty and two-sided…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Transitory … For Real This Time

The Fed held rates steady this afternoon, and the timing of its next move will be dictated by whether the tariff shock to inflation is transitory or more long lasting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Carney-Trump Summit Signals Early Trade Softening
The Carney-Trump summit signals an early shift toward trade de-escalation, creating a tactical tailwind for risk assets. President Trump referred to the Canada-US relationship as a “wonderful marriage.” Moreover, both leaders acknowledged that the USMCA is “a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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