Recent Fedspeak reinforced the message from the last FOMC meeting, tempering December cut expectations but leaving the door open for more easing next year. The labor market remains the swing factor for upcoming decisions. Kansas City…
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on equities but are watching labor market signals closely, as emerging softness could pose a risk to earnings and sentiment. With over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q3…
The November Empire Manufacturing survey beat expectations, rising to 18.7 from 10.7, its fourth positive reading in five months. Both new orders and shipments increased and signaled solid activity, while the employment index ticked…
Tariffs are fading in importance as companies successfully mitigate cost pressures and preserve profitability. The recent wave of high-profile layoffs is more concerning, but there does not appear to be a systemic reason behind the…
Our Global Investment strategists see the AI boom tracking historical capex bubbles and expect it to peak within the next 6 to 12 months. Drawing lessons from the railway, electrification, internet, and oil booms, they warn that…
European sentiment remains mixed, with growth momentum failing to pick up despite brighter long-term prospects. Economic surprises have improved since mid-October, but tight financial conditions, driven by a strong euro and higher…
The S&P500 has fallen by 2% from its peak, but BCA clients see this as little more than a blip. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, we asked our clients whether the recent stock market…
The White House announced the October jobs and CPI reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown, but alternative indicators already point to weaker labor and inflation momentum. The labor market was stalling,…
The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, ticking down to 98.2 from 98.8, reflecting softer expectations and earnings. Lower earnings were driven by both weaker sales volumes and higher costs. The share of…