United States
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2026.
Our Developed Markets ex-US strategists view global liquidity as the decisive macro variable in 2025 and expect it to remain broadly supportive through most of 2026. They therefore stay neutral on equities versus bonds, keep a positive bias toward metals,…
Maintain an overweight duration stance and curve steepeners within US bond portfolios, as the recent uptick in ISM price pressures comes from delivery times, not accelerating costs. While the December ISM Manufacturing report delivered positive growth…
Global manufacturing is stabilizing, with early indications that macro momentum could be turning. The global economy slowed through 2025 due to tariffs and uncertainty, but there are now signs of recovering manufacturing. While DM composite PMIs have largely…
Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, pointing to positive but more modest equity returns. Equity…
Manufacturing data points to resilience after a prolonged slowdown, with inflation risks tilting modestly higher. The January ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations and moved back into expansion at 52.6, after ten consecutive months of contraction through…
2026 should see another year of gains for the S&P 500, but, as the bull market matures and growth slows, returns will be capped by revenue growth rather than being boosted by expanding margins and multiples. We think Tech can outperform, but leadership will broaden and performance gaps will narrow.
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.
S&P 500: Cautious Optimism?
…
Steepeners remain the right trade under a Warsh-led Fed. President Trump announced his intention to nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Despite concerns about Fed independence during the process, Warsh is a conventional candidate.…