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United States

Trade Truce Lifts Manufacturing Sentiment, But Margin Pressures Persist
The US-China trade truce lifted short-term manufacturing sentiment in May, but margin pressures persist, reinforcing the case for defensive, domestic-focused equity positioning. The Empire and Philly Fed regional manufacturing surveys delivered a split signal…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Retail Sales Slip On Tariff Payback, Jobs Data Steady
April retail sales slowed, but signs of resilience in discretionary spending and labor data suggest US consumers are holding up. Headline retail sales rose 0.1% m/m, above expectations but decelerating from the upwardly revised 1.7% March gain. Core sales…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Shifting Stock/Bond Correlation

Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
If 2025 = 2000, Here’s How The Year Unfolds

This year’s plunge in tech stocks followed by the recent strong countertrend rally is eerily reminiscent of 2000. But the market and economic parallels between 2025 and in 2000 run much deeper. This report lists 10 striking parallels between 2025 and 2020, then highlights some important differences, and ends by describing how the rest of 2025 might unfold based on a playbook that is: 2025 = ‘2000 with some tweaks.’

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Stock-Bond Correlation Finds Its Footing Amid Fiscal Risks
The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation concerns, while a positive one reflects growth optimism. In…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Dovish Surprises Are Coming
Expect broad-based dovish surprises from major central banks, and stay overweight UK and euro area government bonds. Our Global Fixed Income, European, and FX strategists published a joint update of BCA’s Central Bank Monitors. They expect the Bank of…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Soft CPI Won’t Sway A Fed Fighting Tariff Inflation
April’s CPI came in cooler than expected, but tariff-driven supply shocks will keep the Fed tight, supporting long-duration exposure. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (2.3% y/y) while core inflation held steady at 2.8%. Services inflation remained firm at 3.7%, and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Take Profits On US Utilities
Our US Equity strategists are closing their tactical overweight in Utilities, as the trade is now crowded and priced for perfection. While the long-term outlook remains attractive, near-term upside is limited given elevated expectations and stretched…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Small Businesses Freeze Hiring As Uncertainty Lingers
Small business sentiment remains recessionary, supporting our defensive asset allocation stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell less than expected to 95.8, reinforcing the cratering in soft data witnessed since the election with policy…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Rotation Will Continue

Markets are pricing out the worst trade policy fears, and while tariffs will still dent earnings, the impact looks smaller than initially feared. With sector rotation gaining traction and oversold names rebounding, we are adjusting our portfolio to reflect the rotation thesis.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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