Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

United States

Please join BCA Research's Chief US Equity Strategist, Irene Tunkel, for a US Equity Intelligence session on Wednesday, April 16 at 9:00 AM HKT, 11:00 AM AEST.
The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey adds to recent stagflationary worries, reinforcing our underweight in risk assets and overweight in government bonds. The general business conditions index rose slightly to -8.1 but remains in contraction, while the…
I’d like to personally invite you to join me and my colleagues at BCA Research on Tuesday, April 15 (12 PM EDT/ 9 AM PST) for a webcast exclusive to long-term institutional investors.
We are pleased to share the replay of US Equity Market Intelligence Session, hosted by Chief US Equity Strategist Irene Tunkel.
Tariff-driven inflation is diverging across economies, with the US facing mounting pressures while disinflation persists elsewhere. In theory, US tariffs should strengthen the dollar and weaken targeted currencies. In practice, the opposite has occurred: The…
 Our FX strategists expect the HKD peg to hold, but at the cost of prolonged economic weakness and debt deflation in Hong Kong. Interest rates remain too high for the local economy, yet monetary easing is off-limits due to the peg.The currency’s…

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Gold mining stocks, Japanese Staples, and Implicit Dividend Yield. 

This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely to see a rebound, which is actually bad news for the Hong Kong region of China, since it will tighten financial conditions. We have no new short-term trades, but if the peg broke, you want to be short HKD/JPY.

The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rise in inflation expectations reinforce our defensive positioning and preference for long-duration bonds. The preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, missing…