United States

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Gold mining stocks, Japanese Staples, and Implicit Dividend Yield. 

This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely to see a rebound, which is actually bad news for the Hong Kong region of China, since it will tighten financial conditions. We have no new short-term trades, but if the peg broke, you want to be short HKD/JPY.

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.

Barring a dramatic further de-escalation of the trade war, the US and much of the rest of the world will enter a recession over the next few months. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now.