United States
US January core new orders beat expectations, rising 0.8% m/m, an acceleration from 0.2% in December. This measure, which excludes defense and aircraft from capital goods, is used as a proxy for business investment. Core shipments however decreased…
Weekly initial claims ticked up to 242k, near 2024 highs. The data is under the spotlight as the Trump administration implements a reduction of the federal workforce through the DOGE. Initial claims are not alarming yet; they remain near historical lows.…
Our Equity Analyzer team used their platform to find value plays in a richly-valued US stock market. US equities remain in a bull market, but valuations are stretched, with investors heavily concentrated in large, trending stocks while they underweight…
The US (and the UK) is staring down the barrel of a ‘mini-stagflation’ until a deflationary shock arrives to neutralise it. We describe a likely source for the deflationary shock and list three investment conclusions that are valid irrespective of how long it takes for the deflationary shock to arrive. Plus: RCI.B is deeply oversold and ripe for a rebound.
European equities have outperformed the US so far in 2025, especially after Euro Area economic surprises started outperforming as the US is starting to disappoint. The current leadership change between US and European assets reflects extremely one-sided…
The House of Representatives passed a Budget Resolution bill that adds $2.8tn to the deficit by 2034. Our Geopolitical strategists highlighted during our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting that the Senate is likely to modify it by increasing tax cuts and…
Our US Equity strategists held a roundtable, which led to many client questions addressed in the team’s latest report. Long-term interest rates will decline if disinflation persists, deficits shrink, or economic growth slows, though each scenario…
Despite the broad market being expensive and overbought, value plays across US equity sectors exist. Real Estate, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples offer cheaper valuations with higher quality attributes relative to history.
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the “debt brake”, which…
Our US Investment strategists visited Midwest clients, and provided a summary of their discussions with investors. Despite solid data, investors should focus on where the economy is headed rather than where it has been. Excess savings have been spent,…