United States
Fed Governor Waller’s latest remarks underscore rising near-term hawkish risks, even as second-half cuts remain likely. Waller clarified his dissent in favor of a 25 bps cut at the last meeting and elaborated on his policy outlook. As one of the more dovish…
US assets have underperformed year-to-date, but BCA views differ on the tactical versus 12-month outlook. Since the start of the year, US markets have lagged the rest of the world, largely driven by the sell-off in software and AI-related stocks. The next…
The president did not announce significant new tax cuts or economic stimulus.
The February Conference Board survey suggests improving labor-market perceptions, consistent with stabilizing growth momentum. The headline index rose to 91.2 from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January, beating estimates. Both present conditions and…
Easing US financial conditions reinforce near-term US data strength. US data has exceeded expectations since the start of the year, with positive economic surprises accelerating. At the same time, financial conditions have eased, as reflected in our proxy…
This report examines the implications for Chinese exports and global trade in light of the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs.
The Dallas Fed survey points to strengthening manufacturing activity alongside moderating price pressures. The headline index rose to 0.2 from -1.2, beating estimates and marking the strongest reading since July 2025, though still at a low level. The index…
President Trump announced a new 15% tariff under Section 122 following the Supreme Court’s strike-down of tariffs imposed under the IEEPA statute. Despite the ruling, Sections 232 and 301 remain available and are not time-limited, preserving significant…
Trump is saving face with new tariffs but will avoid any major new tariff shock until 2027. For now, Iran risk will overshadow tariff volatility.
US checks and balances are still in place. The Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration's use of sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Our US and Geopolitical strategists see different implications for the…