The October ISM Services PMI beat estimates, rising to 52.4 from 50.0, but volatility and mixed internals argue for a cautious interpretation. The strength was broad, led by a jump in new orders to 56.2 from 50.4, while employment,…
The October ADP report beat estimates but remains consistent with a stalled labor market and slowing job creation. The report showed 42k new private-sector jobs, while September was revised to a loss of 29k from 32k. Only half of…
Off-year election results are likely to bring an end to the 36-day US government shutdown, as Democrats and Republicans both have incentives to compromise. Democrats initiated the standoff to energize their base ahead of the…
Our Geopolitical strategists view the Trump–Xi summit as a limited but market-friendly outcome, extending the tariff truce and reducing near-term geopolitical risk. While no trade deal was reached, modest concessions such as lower…
The mild S&P 500 pullback does not signal a market top, as positioning and volatility metrics remain contained. The current drawdown is small, even as valuations stay elevated. It also reflects the reflexive nature of markets:…
2025 has underscored widening policy and market divergence between the US and Canada, but Canadian yields still offer room for downside. The spread between the 2-year GoC yield and the overnight rate is less than 10 bps, compared…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists see no immediate red flags for the bull market and recommend staying overweight equities and fixed income. The AI capex cycle remains intact. Equity distributions are exceeding issuance, and…
The October ISM Manufacturing survey missed expectations, signaling sluggish growth and easing price pressures. The index slipped to 48.7 from 49.1, contracting for the eight consecutive month, driven by weaker production and lower…
Investor reaction to Meta’s GenAI is an admonition against overspending, rather than a sign of a fraying GenAI rally. Other hyperscalers’ investments are driven by buoyant demand and remain profitable. With valuations stretched and…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…