United States
The November ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations, increasing to 48.4 from 46.5 in October. The improvement was partly driven by the new orders component, which increased to 50.4 from 47.1. Price pressures moderated. The underlying details of…
As 2024 closes out a busy electoral calendar for North America, our Geopolitical strategists look at Canada, where an election will be held by October 2025. Canada is poised for a likely change in leadership next year. The next government will…
November trading was centered around the US election and its aftermath. US assets led the way, with US equities significantly outperforming their global counterparts. The US dollar strengthened considerably against both DM and EM currencies. Investment-grade…
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team evaluated the impact of president-elect Trump’s policies on commodity markets. Trump’s energy policies, while promoting increased domestic oil production, are unlikely to drive immediate growth in US crude output.…
European monetary data printed in line with expectations in October, with M3 growing 3.4% y/y vs. 3.2% in September. Growth in private sector lending was unchanged at 1.2% y/y despite the recent easing in lending standards. We expect the credit impulse to…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not expected to last. The market-based core…
Consumer confidence came in as expected in November, with The Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 from 108.7 in October, a level not seen since August 2023. Both the assessment of consumers’ present and future situation drove the increase. The…
President-elect Trump jolted markets Monday night by declaring that tariffs will be implemented on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. The US dollar strengthened while stocks fell, as did Treasury yields. Equities, however, recovered on Tuesday, as a…
We used last Friday’s BCA Live & Unfiltered Meeting to assess our views on the US dollar after its recent bull run. While technical indicators may show short-term exhaustion, and Scott Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary put a lid on recent dollar…
Our US Investment Strategy team analyzed recent US consumer trends through the lens of major retailers’ earnings calls, which highlighted increasingly prudent spending. Consumer caution is apparent in these earnings calls as pandemic-era savings fade, and…