The filibuster is likely to survive, limiting the long-term policy impact of the current government shutdown. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political Strategist. Despite President Trump…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
The US and China announced a one-year trade truce, but differences remain too wide for a lasting deal. The agreement includes a pause on rare-earth restrictions, allowances for blacklisted Chinese firms to import chips through…
The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and announced QT will end December 1, signaling modest easing but no December cut commitment. The decision matched expectations, with dovish (Gov. Miran, for a 50 bps cut) and hawkish (Pres…
The October Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey beat estimates but fell slightly, showing stable current conditions and softer expectations. The headline declined to 94.6 from an upwardly revised 95.6. Consumers’ assessment…
The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal, though it remains unclear whether the goal is simply damage control or a genuine expansion of market access. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on October 30 in…
US inflation data continue to show no signs of price pressures beyond a near-term tariff effect.
The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.