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United States

Staying The Course On Our Bearish Views
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish developments. First, there is more to…
Daily Insights
Hard Data Shows Further Evidence Of Global Slowdown
Japanese core machinery orders decreased by 1.9% in August and dropped 3.4% year-over-year, missing expectations for modest growth. This decline reversed July’s improvement, when machinery orders grew at an 8.7% annual pace. Japanese core machinery orders…
Daily Insights
A Bearish Signal From Commodities
While recent cross-asset developments have sent a risk-on signal, with equities and bond yields both higher, the commodity complex has recently been sending a more somber message. “Dr. Copper” is a bellwether for the global economy given its industrial…
Daily Insights
Taking The Pulse From Bank Earnings
Third-quarter earnings season has started last week for banks, with most major banks reporting earnings above expectations so far. Our US Investment strategists routinely analyze the big banks' earnings calls to gauge their views on the strength of…
Daily Insights
Soft Landing And US Treasuries
Recent positive US economic surprises drove cross-asset pricing, pushing both equities and Treasury yields higher. What do these yield levels mean for the Treasury market, and what path can we expect looking forward? Our US Bond strategists believe the…
Daily Insights
A Disappointing First Read On US Manufacturing
After improving throughout the summer, the October release of the first monthly regional Fed manufacturing survey sent a negative signal about US manufacturing activity. General business conditions from the Empire State Manufacturing survey fell 23 points…
Daily Insights
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Staying The Course

Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our defensive investment recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Has The US Labor Market Turned The Corner?

It is too early to say that the US labor market has turned the corner. We assign a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession over the next 12 months, with the downturn likely to begin in the first half of 2025. Accordingly, investors should underweight equities.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Inflation Takes A Back Seat

We give our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and (lack of) market reaction. We also close our short position in January 2025 fed funds futures.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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