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United States

US Aggregate Data Hint At Accelerating Activity
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a broad-based acceleration since…
Daily Insights
Bet On The Senate, Not The White House
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the important election takeaway for investment strategy comes from the Senate. The Senate is highly likely to fall to Republicans. They are nearly certain to win West Virginia and very likely to…
Daily Insights
Record-High Uncertainty Constrains Small Business Hiring and Capex
The NFIB Small Business Optimism index was mostly flat in September, ticking a mere 0.3 points higher to 91.5 in September, below expectations of a more meaningful improvement to 92.0. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since…
Daily Insights
Credit Card Debt Decelerates In August
Consumer credit growth slowed in August, rising by USD 8.9 bn (to USD 5,097.6 bn outstanding) from USD 26.6 bn, disappointing expectations of a USD 12 bn monthly increase. Notably, revolving credit (which includes credit cards) declined by USD 1.4 bn over the…
Daily Insights
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Here, There, And Everywhere Report - October 2024

The month of October ahead of a US general election tends to be a volatile month with negative outcome for equities. As such, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until after the election.

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
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Peak Polarization Or Not? US Political Outlook Q4 2024

The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more risk. While we predicted the October surprise from the Middle East, more surprises are coming before the final vote is cast.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
More Aggressive Easing Ex-US Will Lift The Dollar
The dollar had erased all of its 2024 gains going into the fall, as markets prepared for Fed rate cuts. After a nearly 6% drawdown over the spring and summer, last week’s DXY rally brought the dollar back into the black YTD. Can these gains continue now…
Daily Insights
Conditions Are Not In Place To Overweight EM
In response to the Chinese stimulus announced in late September, our Emerging Market strategists upgraded EM equities to no more than neutral. Indeed, while these measures have triggered a sentiment-fueled rally from depressed valuation levels, conditions…
Daily Insights
A Blockbuster September Employment Report
September nonfarm payrolls grew by 254 thousand, from 155 thousand in August, handily exceeding expectations of 150 thousand. Pro-cyclical manufacturing jobs declined by a lower-than-anticipated 7 thousand, while leisure and hospitality, as well as…
Daily Insights
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Back In The Soft Landing Zone

The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our cyclical positioning.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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