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United States

September In Review
The Fed embarked on a new easing cycle with a bang and China delivered its largest stimulus since 2015, leading to a strengthening in the risk-on soft-landing narrative in September. Chinese and EM equities led the pack. We highlighted that Beijing’s…
Daily Insights
Iran Is Not As Restrained As Advertised
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the Biden administration’s outreach to Iran will fail. The war in the Middle East has expanded as our colleagues predicted: Israel attacked Lebanon. Now Iran is likely to intervene, not because…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Central Bank Rate Cuts: A Savior Or Forewarning?

The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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Revisiting The Nifty Fifty

The Nifty Fifty bull market of the early seventies was a mania in which investors got carried away chasing after a subset of prized growth stocks. While we do not think the Magnificent Seven stocks are in a bubble, they do have some parallels with the growth stars of 50 years ago.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Durable Goods Stagnate In August
Preliminary estimates suggested that US durable goods orders stagnated in August after having surged 9.9% m/m in July, and beating expectations they would decline. Excluding the volatile transportation component, however, durable goods grew a robust 0.5%. …
Daily Insights
Easier Financial Conditions Won’t Prevent Labor Demand Deterioration
US financial conditions have become noticeably easier since August. The Fed has embarked on its easing cycle with a bang, sending equities higher and spreads lower, while the trade-weighted dollar gave back more than half of its year-to-date gains. The…
Daily Insights
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US Nuclear Energy: Decaying Dominance

US nuclear energy is in a state of decay. The industry lacks standardization, making it expensive and timely to deploy new nuclear energy projects. Policy support is also lacking compared to other energy sources. Public opinion on nuclear energy is warming but will do little for commercial uptake – investors still face massively high startup costs. Meanwhile, competition is heating up. China is fast approaching the global top spot with its grand nuclear energy strategy. For once, the US may not be the best investment case we have all come to know.

BCA Special Reports by Jeremie Peloso, Guy Russell
Consumer Income And Spending Consistent With Broad Cooling
US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In real terms, spending barely…
Daily Insights
Downtrend In Savings Rate Gets Revised Away
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show that the savings rate has been…
Daily Insights
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Can Lower Rates Save The Economy?

We consider the possibility that lower interest rates could lead to an increase in household borrowing, prolonging the economic recovery.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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