For the month of February, the model underperformed both global and U.S. equities. For March, the model has modestly pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into bonds. While Europe remains the largest equity…

Special Report

The risk to ROE remains to the downside, which suggests that valuation multiples have peaked for the cycle. Beyond a potentially violent near-term counter-trend bounce, valuation multiples will remain under pressure.

Special Report

The risk to ROE remains to the downside, which suggests that valuation multiples have peaked for the cycle. Beyond a potentially violent near-term counter-trend bounce, valuation multiples will remain under pressure.

Special Report

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its…

Sterling has come under intense pressure since PM Cameron announced date of the EU referendum. Our bearish view on the British pound has not been based on a forecast of U.K. succession from the EU.

The remarkable admission by OPEC's secretary-general, Salem el-Badri, earlier this week that with "any increase in (oil's) price, shale will come immediately and cover any reduction" in output only hints at the larger impact of light…

Special Report

This month's Special Report reviews the main factors driving the "lower for longer" bond yield view. A key finding is that the demographically-driven portion of the expansion in world capital spending has come to a virtual standstill…

Credit growth acceleration in China is a bearish development in the long run. Potential non-performing loans at Chinese banks could wipe out 40-55% of their equity capital. "Muddling through" for China, from its own internal…

A near-term rally in risk assets now appears very likely. But we expect it to be cut short when the Fed eventually reacts to easier financial conditions by returning to a more hawkish policy stance. Investors should maintain a…

The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.