Lean against rally attempts until leading profit indicators improve. The conditions for a tradable oilfield services rebound remain elusive. Capital markets may bounce, but we would sell on strength.
The agreement to freeze oil production should reduce tail risks, even if it does not improve overall corporate sector health and profits.
The recovery in global risk assets and currencies is a temporary oversold bounce. It is not supported by signs that global growth is on the mend. Consequently, we are not willing to embrace more risk in our currency strategy just yet…
Markets see long-term global growth prospects as having deteriorated materially, with policymakers unwilling or unable to do much about it. Meanwhile, recent economic data - U.S. notably - hasn't been that bad. A divergence between…
While the oil market looked right through the Russian-Saudi production-freeze announcement earlier this week, we believe these states may be attempting to put lipstick on the proverbial pig, to provide a plausible narrative to…
Value in the U.S. Treasury market is rapidly deteriorating, and the 10-year Treasury yield is now consistent with our fair value projections. Investors should shift from an above-benchmark to a benchmark duration stance.
Reduce portfolio duration to neutral, while also cutting exposure to European bonds (both in the core and Periphery) and Canadian government bonds.
U.S. dollar softness may be sparking a subtle shift in sub-surface dynamics, to the benefit of select deep cyclical industries. Switch from rails into electrical equipment, and take profits in data processing.
It has been the perfect storm for a sharp appreciation in the Japanese yen. The immediate catalyst for the strengthening yen was the sell-off in global risk assets. However, the fundamental case for a stronger yen had been building…
The Fed backing off from rate hikes is a necessary but not sufficient step toward putting a floor under global risk assets. Equity market breadth measures are still very weak, suggesting the selloff remains broad-based. The bear…