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Valuations

Fourth Quarter 2023 Strategy Outlook: On A Knife-Edge

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Is That It For US Cyclicals Versus Defensives?
The year-to-date rally in US cyclical stocks has fizzled. After climbing 29% in the first seven months of the year, cyclical equities are down 6.0% since the beginning of August. This drop is happening in the context of a general equity selloff. However, the…
Daily Insights
Are US Equity Valuations Consistent With The Level Of Interest Rates?
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To this end, BCA’s US equity…
Daily Insights
A Reversal Of Fortune
Tech stocks have recently been bearing the brunt of the US equity selloff. The Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors – home to major H1 outperformers including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla – have both underperformed the…
Daily Insights
Are Higher Interest Rates Hurting Corporate Balance Sheets?

Top-down measures of nonfinancial corporate sector balance sheet health have been flattered in recent quarters by inaccurate data on interest expense. After correcting for the inaccurate data, we see that our best measures of corporate balance sheet health show a persistent steady deterioration.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Nothing In CPI To Prevent A Fed Pause

The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Are Chinese Stocks A Good Bargain Now?

While Chinese stocks have low valuations and are oversold, their attractiveness is dampened by uncertainties in the magnitude of stimulus and the dismal outlook for corporate profits in the next six to nine months.

China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Unsupervised Indicators Signal High Probability Of An Equity Reversal
Unsupervised methods, like Principal Component Analysis (PCA), can create powerful indicators that are based purely on the structure of the data and void of researcher bias. Therefore, they can provide agnostic evidence to support BCA’s fundamental,…
Daily Insights
US Small Caps: Will The Rally Be Reignited?
After having sold off in the first five months of the year, the performance of small-cap stocks improved in June and July with the S&P 600 index gaining 13.9% in those two months. A broadening of the US equity rally – which earlier in the year was…
Daily Insights
Some Lessons From Jackson Hole And A Shift In Our Yield Curve Positioning

We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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