Highlights The post-2008 boom in stocks, corporate bonds, and real estate is a ‘rational bubble’, because the relationship between risk-asset valuations and falling bond yields is exponential. But the ‘rational…
In lieu of the next strategy report, I will be presenting the quarterly webcast titled ‘Five Contrarian Predictions For 2021-22’ on Thursday February 11 at 10.00AM EST (3.00PM GMT, 4.00PM CET, 11.00PM HKT). I hope you can…
Highlights A positive backdrop still supports a cyclical bull market in Chinese stocks, but the upside in prices could be quickly exhausted. Investors may be overlooking emerging negative signs in China’s onshore equity market.…
Highlights Global Yields: The fall in global bond yields over the past two weeks represents a corrective pullback from an overly rapid rise in inflation expectations, especially in the US. The underlying reflationary themes that drove…
Highlights New recommendation: Go neutral growth versus value on a 6-12-month horizon… …and exploit the greater opportunities within the growth universe and within the value universe. Within the growth universe,…
Highlights The stock market’s 60 percent rally since mid-March is reaching a near-term valuation test. Sell stocks and wait on the side lines if the 10-year T-bond yield rises by 0.3 percent. Go aggressively overweight T-bonds…
Highlights Chart 1Spending Held Up In August The bulk of the CARES act’s income support provisions expired at the end of July and Congress has still not reached consensus on a follow-up package. Unsurprisingly,…
Highlights An uptick in COVID-19 infections and squabbling on Capitol Hill are making investors newly uneasy, … : A rising 7-day moving average of new virus infections and falling probability of new fiscal aid weighed heavily on…
Highlights Global GDP growth estimates from the OECD point to a stronger recovery in oil demand than markets are pricing in at present (Chart of the Week). Our forecast for Brent remains at $46/bbl for 2H20 and $65/bbl on average…