Dear Client, I will be on vacation next week. Instead of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from my colleague Jonathan LaBerge. Jonathan will explore the risks posed to commercial real estate and the banking…
The Fed’s minutes earlier this week served as a catalyst for a mini pullback in equities, as the US dollar caught a bid. Unemployment insurance claims above the million mark added insult to injury and the odds are rising that this…
Highlights Global Credit Spreads: The relentless rally in global credit markets since the rout in February and March has driven corporate spreads to near pre-pandemic lows in the US, Europe and even emerging markets. Central bank…
Highlights The strong rally in certain mega-cap stocks has masked the muted revival in the broad equity universe. Limited fiscal stimulus and a broken monetary transmission mechanism herald lackluster economic and profit recoveries.…
Highlights Scarce Yield: The correlation of relative global government bond returns and yield levels is becoming more positive. The trend should continue if central bankers across the developed world stick to their promises to maintain…
Highlights Chart 1How Much Lower For Real Yields? Treasury yields moved lower last month even as the overall bond market priced-in a more reflationary economic environment. Spread product outperformed Treasuries and…
Highlights The use of physical distancing and face masks restricts any activity that requires the use of your mouth and nose in proximity to others. We estimate that this restriction could wipe out 10 percent of jobs. Hence, as…
Highlights The decade-long US equity market outperformance versus the rest of the world could be nearing its end. We are upgrading EM stocks from underweight to neutral within a global equity portfolio. We reiterate the change in our…
Highlights The tech sector is in a manic phase. This mania has further room to run because inflation will remain low for at least the next two years and global central banks will maintain very easy policy conditions, which will cap…