The SPX started the week on the right foot, but we continue to recommend investors avoid chasing equities at this point. Two key risks we have flagged recently are: rising concentration risk of market leaders, and geopolitical…
Last Friday, my colleague Dhaval Joshi and I held a webcast discussing investment strategies. The topics of discussion included global equity valuations, mega-cap stocks leadership and the outlook for EM stocks, fixed-income and…
Highlights Chinese stocks are still in the “public participation phase” of a cyclical bull market and have not yet reached the “excess phase.” Economic fundamentals should provide support for more upside in…
Highlights The yield advantage behind the dollar bull market since 2011 has completely evaporated. This has unhinged one of the final pillars of dollar support. However, there is also a shifting paradigm in currency markets as…
Highlights The EM equity benchmark’s concentration in the top six stocks – that in turn correlate with US FAANGM – has risen substantially. Hence, the outlook for US mega-cap stocks will continue to significantly…
Highlights Q2/2020 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed the custom benchmark by +11bps during the second quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The government bond side of the portfolio…
Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models suggest the US dollar is broadly overvalued. We are maintaining a modest procyclical currency stance (long NOK, GBP and SEK), but also have a portfolio hedge (short USD/JPY). Go…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The coronavirus pandemic is not over. Enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus will soften the blow to the global economy, but there remain significant risks to growth over the next 12 months…
Highlights Global Growth & Inflation: An increasing number of growth indicators worldwide are tracing out a “v”-shaped pattern from the COVID-19 recession. However, high unemployment and a lack of inflationary pressure…