Highlights Low Bond Volatility: Weakening non-U.S. growth and a more dovish Fed have crushed global government bond volatility, especially in Europe and Japan where yields are struggling to stay above 0%. Treasury-Bund and Treasury-JGB…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The ongoing capex upcycle, resurgent credit growth, easy Chinese policy trifecta, upbeat signals from high frequency financial market data and depressed technicals, all suggest that a re-rating phase…
Highlights Please note that analysis on India is published below. Even if the recent upturn in the Chinese credit impulse is sustained, there will likely still be a six- to nine-month lag between the impulse’s trough and the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The path of least resistance is higher for the broad equity market on the back of a reflationary impulse and a less dogmatic Fed. Now that the SPX forward EPS bar has been lowered to the ground, upward…
Highlights Spread Product Valuation: Corporate bond spreads don’t look especially cheap relative to average historical levels. But they are far too elevated for the current phase of the economic cycle. Valuations in other spread…
Our size CMI has been hovering near the boom/bust line, as it has for most of the last two years. Despite the neutral CMI reading, in response to the diverging (and unsustainable) debt levels of small caps vs. their large cap…
For S&P financials, the divergence between the upward thrust of our CMI and the depressed level of our valuation indicator (VI) has reached stunning levels, the former accelerating into pre-GFC territory and the latter…
Key Portfolio Highlights The S&P 500 has started 2019 with a bang as dovish cooing from the Fed has proven a tonic for equities. While we have not entirely retraced the path to the early-autumn highs, our strategy of staying…
We often rely on our Intermediate-Term Timing Model (ITTM) to gauge if a currency is cheap or not. The above chart compares the Aggregate Domestic Attractiveness Ranking of G-10 currencies to their deviation from their ITTM.…
Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…