Highlights After tumbling more than 20% between June and August, copper prices have remained largely static. This reflects the tug-of-war between the near-term bullish physical market fundamentals, and the cloudier macro headwinds ahead…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Overbought technicals, pricey valuations, decelerating global growth, declining capex, rising indebtedness and softening operating metrics argue for hopping off the S&P railroads index. Rising…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Debt saddled small caps have to wrestle with rising interest rates at a time when they lack a valuation cushion. Tack on their high beta status and investors should continue to avoid small caps and…

Highlights The Fed remains on a tightening course as the U.S. economy has no spare capacity, yet growth in the rest of the world is suffering as EM financial conditions are tightening. It will take more pain for the Fed to capitulate…

Special Report

As promised in early September, this is the third installment of our four part Indicators series. In this Special Report, we follow a similar script to Part II but instead of sectors, we now cover the S&P 500, non-financial equities,…

Highlights Historically, the dollar exhibits positive seasonality in October and November. Technical and valuation indicators suggest that this year will be no exception. Continuing divergence between U.S. and global growth, rising…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A playable sector rotation opportunity has emerged, as we first argued at the recent BCA investment conference: Financials, industrials and select tech subgroups will lead the next phase of the market…

Highlights Duration: Last week's bond market rout was driven by strong U.S. data. Global growth (ex. U.S.) continues to weaken. Weak foreign growth that migrates stateside via a stronger dollar remains the biggest risk to our below…

Highlights Set your overall investment strategy with two 'rules of 4' based on 10-year bond yields: If either the Italian BTP or the sum of the U.S. T-bond, German bund and JGB stays above 4 percent, then sell equities and buy…

Highlights We review last year's "Three Tantalizing Trades" and offer four additional ones: Trade #1: Long June 2019 Fed funds futures contract/short Dec 2020 Fed funds futures contract Trade #2: Long USD/CNY Trade #3…