Highlights Wage inflation in the EU28 is running at exactly the same rate as in the U.S. In the euro area, it is only modestly lower. As the current business cycle completes, the euro area versus U.S. bond yield spread will narrow,…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Selling in the S&P cable & satellite index is overdone. Recession type valuations fully reflect the acquirer discount heavyweight CMCSA is still commanding. Lift exposure to neutral. Content…

Special Report

Feature Valuations, whether for currencies, equities or bonds, are always at the top of the list of the determinants of any asset's long-term performance. This means that after large FX moves like those experienced so far this year…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A rare buying opportunity has emerged in the S&P consumer staples index, especially for long-term oriented capital. The bearish story is already baked into current valuations, and industry green-…

Highlights Global Inflation has upside on a cyclical basis, but this narrative is well known and investors have already placed their bets accordingly, buying inflation protection in a wide swath of markets. However, global growth has…

Highlights Major and drawn-out financial market downturns usually occur in phases and often resemble a domino effect. There have been a number of noteworthy divergences in the EM space of late. They are probably part of a domino…

Highlights The following four investment themes are likely to play out over the next couple of years: The yield shortfall on German long-dated bunds versus the equivalent U.S. T-bonds and U.K. gilts will narrow, one way or the other…

Highlights China's ongoing industrial sector slowdown will not likely lead to a global growth shock, but investors should recognize that China's relative stability is supported by strong global demand. A negative surprise to…

Highlights Fed: The Fed will not automatically slow the pace of rate hikes as the funds rate approaches current estimates of its neutral level. Rather, estimates of that neutral level will be revised depending on the outlook for the…

Highlights Chart 1Risks To The Bond Bear Market  Two weeks ago we flagged that large net short positioning and elevated growth expectations left the Treasury market primed to benefit from any disturbance in the economic outlook.…