Highlights U.S. Treasury Curve: The U.S. Treasury curve has flattened to new cyclical lows as the market has moved to fully price in the Fed's interest rate forecasts. Inflation expectations must rise further for those…

Special Report

Markets have been uneasy recently; last month saw the Fed raise rates, combined with language indicating a steeper path for interest rate moves in the coming two years. As of writing, markets are currently assigning a nearly 75%…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The capex upcycle, a soft U.S. dollar and improving end demand signal that it no longer pays to underweight the S&P tech sector. Lift exposure to neutral. Firming domestic and global final demand,…

Special Report

Highlights In China, the central bank and commercial banks conducted outright monetization of real estate inventories, which caused the property markets' recovery post 2015. Despite destocking, aggregate property inventories…

Highlights Key Portfolio Highlights Our portfolio positioning remains firmly behind cyclicals over defensives, driven principally by our key 2018 investment themes: synchronized global capex growth (Chart 1A) and higher interest…

Highlights Chart 1Inflation Pressures Mount  Spread product underperformed equivalent-duration Treasuries for the second consecutive month in March. But last month's underperformance was different than February's in one…

Highlights Continue to underweight the most cyclical sectors - Banks, Basic Materials, and Energy. As predicted, global growth is losing steam. This implies that the Eurostoxx50 will struggle to outperform the S&P500. Continue…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The reward/risk profile of air freight & logistics is extremely attractive. Synchronized global growth, the capex upcycle, a falling dollar and secular advance in e-commerce compel us to add this…

Highlights Two big distortions in the euro area economy arose because Germany depressed its wages for a decade, and then Italy failed to fix its broken banks for a decade... ...but both distortions are now correcting. Long-term…

Highlights Chinese domestic stocks have materially lagged their investable peers over the past three years, due to the legacy effects of an enormous, policy-driven bubble in 2014-2015. While A-shares have worked off some of this…