Special Report

Highlights Data based on Bloomberg/Barclays global treasury/aggregate indexes from December 1990 to January 2018 supports the argument that foreign government bonds are not worthy of investing in when unhedged, due to extremely high…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Quantitative tightening, a rising fed funds rate and higher prices at the pump are all bearish consumer discretionary stocks. Downgrade exposure to underweight. We are executing this interest rate-…

Highlights Chart 1Inflation Perks Up  The Fed has struck a decidedly more upbeat tone in 2018. We noted last week that the Fed staff made upward revisions to its growth forecasts, and then Chairman Jerome Powell testified to…

Special Report

We boosted the financials sector heavyweight S&P banks index to overweight on May 1, 2017,1 and in late-November we also included it in our 2018 high-conviction overweight list. Since last May, relative performance has added…

Special Report

We examined emerging market equity valuations as an asset class in Part 1 of this Special Report published on January 24; the link is available on page 18. The conclusions of the report were: That EM stocks are about one standard…

Dear Client, I am travelling this week meeting clients in Asia, so this report has been written by my colleagues, Billy Zicheng Huang and Sophie McGrath. Greece, the epicentre of the euro debt crisis, is finally recovering.…

Special Report

Highlights While internet retail moved to the mainstream more than a decade ago, it continues to capture the lion's share of retail growth and investors' imaginations along with it. Further, the philosophy of "profits don…

Highlights The combined U.S. current account and fiscal deficits are set to rise as Trump's profligacy and higher interest rates kick in. In and of itself, this does not spell doom for the dollar. The Fed's response to the twin…

Highlights The euro is cheap. To cease being cheap, EUR/USD needs to approach 1.35. Euro area bonds are expensive. To cease being expensive, the yield spread between the euro area and U.S. long bond needs to compress from -135 bps to…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global capex growth and higher interest rates are two key themes that will continue to dominate this year. Three high-conviction calls are levered to the former theme and two to the latter. A…