Highlights Expectations that the BoJ's yield curve control strategy is toward its tail end, general USD weakness, and brewing EM troubles are conspiring to push the yen higher. Tactically, the yen has more upside. Global financial…
Highlights Despite having the largest negative return of major markets during the global equity market correction, China's investable stock selloff appears to be normal after controlling for its risk characteristics. Taken…
Highlights As the Fed proceeds with its policy tightening this year, higher real rates and a stronger USD will weigh on silver and platinum prices, and, to a lesser extent, palladium prices. Offsetting these downward pressures, silver,…
Highlights The trajectory of EM bank profits and share prices will be critical to sustain the EM equity rally. Rising U.S. bond yields will push up EM local bond yields. This, along with poor quality of banks' earnings, will…
The 10% tactical pullback that we had been flagging in recent publications with the tech sector correctly sniffing it out has materialized, and our strategy is to start "buying the dip" as we do not foresee a recession…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Relentless selling in utilities stocks is overdone and we are compelled to lift exposure to neutral. Operating metrics have turned the corner for the better, but a still challenging macro backdrop suggests…
Highlights Chart 1Waiting For A Signal TIPS breakeven inflation rates are fast approaching our end-of-cycle targets (Chart 1). The 10-year and 5-year/5-year rates are currently 2.14% and 2.36% respectively, only slightly below…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Recovering energy related capex and upbeat oil prices are a powerful tonic for the S&P integrated oil & gas index. Augment positions to overweight. A diverging crude/refined product inventory…
Highlights Global equities are technically overbought, making them highly vulnerable to a correction. The cyclical picture for stocks still looks good, thanks to strong economic growth and rising corporate profits, but the recent…
Highlights The dollar seems to have entered a cyclical bear market, which suggests that EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. While the euro performs well in the late stages of the business cycle, it has moved ahead of long-term…