The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of January 31, 2018. The model has made large shifts in country allocations. The U.S. is upgraded to neutral from previously the largest underweight, driven largely by technical…

Watch Inflation Expectations How much longer can this go on? Global equities were up 6% in January alone (the 15th consecutive month of positive returns), and investors are increasingly asking how much further this bull market has to…

Highlights Even though our baseline scenario calls for four rate hikes out of the Fed this year - more than markets have priced in - gold will be supported by increasing inflation and inflation expectations, heightened geopolitical risks…

Highlights Duration Checklist: Our Duration Checklists continue to point to a bearish backdrop for global bond yields. A continued below-benchmark overall portfolio duration stance is warranted. There is not enough of a difference…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A stable China, a depreciating U.S. dollar, rising commodity prices and sustained synchronized global growth signal that the industrials complex, especially the most cyclical part, remains on a solid…

Highlights U.S. equities 'melted up' in January as tax cuts made the robust growth/low inflation sweet spot even sweeter. Ominously, recent market action is beginning to resemble a classic late cycle blow-off phase. The…

Highlights One of the biggest mistakes in finance is to equate risk with volatility. The correct measure of risk is the negative skew in payoff distributions. If 10-year bond yields should rise another 40 bps, equities would become…

Special Report

Highlights EM stocks are about one standard deviation above their fair value, according to several valuation indicators. Provided EM equities are neither extremely overvalued nor undervalued, the key to their performance over the next…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Relative sector index composition, the macro backdrop, relative operating metrics along with compelling valuations and washed out technicals suggest that a value over growth style bias is warranted.…

Highlights The euro is in a cyclical bull market. It is supported by attractive valuations, improving balance of payments dynamics, declining political risk, potential shifts in reserves preferences, and a re-rating of the European…