Highlights Duration: The market is now priced for only 30 bps of rate hikes between now and the end of the year, despite little evidence that growth is actually slowing. Stay at below-benchmark duration and remain short the January…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The consumer staples recovery is sales-driven, underscoring that additional outperformance lies ahead. The lagging hypermarkets and retail food industries are starting to play catch up, reflecting a…
Highlights Duration: The recent strength in bond markets appears to be a flight to quality driven by heightened political uncertainty. Underlying economic growth remains solid, and investors should fade the recent moves by adding to…
I am honored to join BCA Research as Senior Vice President of the U.S. Investment Strategy service. I have been researching and writing about the economy and financial markets for more than 30 years. I joined BCA Research from LPL…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Operating leverage could surprise on the strong side this year, based on the message from our pricing power and wage growth indicators. REITs are experiencing a playable recovery following the Fed-…
Highlights The level of Fed interest rates, in absolute or relative terms, has been a poor determinant of dollar bull markets. A more useful marker has been the relative performance of U.S. assets as well as relative growth rates.…
Highlights An investment's long-term attractiveness depends on the trade-off between its expected long-term return and its risk of suffering an intermediate loss. On this risk-adjusted basis: Bonds are now less ugly than equities…
Highlights Chinese capex and EM domestic demand will falter again in the second half of this year. This is not contingent on a growth slowdown in the advanced economies, but due to a further slowdown in bank lending in EM and lower…
Highlights High Conviction Views: The global cyclical backdrop remains negative for government bond markets, and the recent declines in yields will not be sustained. We continue to recommend a below-benchmark overall duration stance,…
Highlights Duration: Bond market positioning is no longer at a bearish extreme and the economy is quickly approaching full employment. We expect Treasury yields will soon break through the upside of their post-election trading range.…